Research

Fareground research.

01 · The question

Can agents in simulated environments predict real-world outcomes?

Fareground uses multi-agent simulations to study real systems before their outcomes are known. We model the actors, information, incentives, and constraints that shape a scenario, then observe what emerges when agents make decisions inside it.

The question is not whether a simulation can produce a plausible story. It is whether its aggregate result contains useful signal about what happens next — and under which conditions that signal is reliable. We compare simulations with observed outcomes and simpler baselines to learn where the method works, where it fails, and how it can improve.

02 · Method

How we work.

01Frame the questionCollect the relevant data, define the scenario, and identify the observable outcome the study will measure.
02Build and groundEncode the actors, information, rules, incentives, and possible actions, then calibrate the environment against known evidence.
03Run simulationsExecute repeated trials across seeds, agent populations, models, strategies, and controlled variations.
04Analyze the systemAggregate outcomes and study how agents reason, coordinate, adapt, and influence one another.
05Publish the evidenceRelease the findings with the runnable environment, configuration, evaluation, and stated limitations.
03 · Themes

Research areas.

MarketingForecast campaign response, message resonance, audience movement, conversion, and demand.
ProductsTest launches, pricing, packaging, positioning, adoption, and retention.
MarketsStudy trading, price formation, liquidity, investment decisions, and market stress.
WorkplaceModel hierarchy, delegation, incentives, coordination, and organizational decisions.
NegotiationExplore bargaining, information asymmetry, concessions, coalitions, and agreement.
GovernanceStudy legislation, collective decisions, representation, compliance, and institutional behavior.
LawExplore disputes, case strategy, settlement, evidence, and likely procedural outcomes.
Public opinionModel persuasion, attention, narratives, misinformation, and changing beliefs.
NetworksObserve how information, influence, trust, and behavior spread between people.
CooperationStudy trust, shared incentives, free riding, norms, enforcement, and group behavior.
CrisisTest how groups make decisions under pressure, uncertainty, and changing external events.
EvaluationCompare models and strategies through repeated runs, behavioral traces, and scored outcomes.
04 · Results

What we've found.

The research record brings together active studies, runnable environments, resolved predictions, and publications as the work develops.